Cincinnati Real Estate Market – 2020 Housing Trends and 2021 Forecast

If you’re looking to buy or sell a home in Mason, Ohio, you want to know what’s going on with the real estate market there. We’re going to deep dive into the market dynamics in this video, so you’ve got a really good feel of what it’s like in Mason, Ohio and the entire Cincinnati real estate market. Let’s look at the raw MLS data together.

Cincinnati Real Estate Market - 2020 Housing Trends and 2021 Forecast

Video and Team Sztanyo Introduction

All right. Hey guys. Welcome back. My name’s Eric Sztanyo, from Keller Williams Realty and team Sztanyo.com, where we are helping families find their way home. And thanks so much for watching this video. If you wouldn’t mind, and if this is helpful for you, please hit the Like button, subscribe to our channel. We’re doing all kinds of real estate content here in the Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky market. And leave a comment below. Tell us if you’re considering moving to Mason or selling a home in Mason, Ohio. And also tell us what other content you want us to build. We’d be happy to build that out as we grow this channel here.

Why Mason Ohio is a Great Place to Live

So what I wanted to look at, and we just did another video about five reasons why Mason, Ohio is an awesome place to live. And it really is, in terms of all the Cincinnati area markets on the Northeast side of the city, we looked at how fun it is. You’ve got Kings Island, you’ve got the Western Southern Open. You’ve got Great Wolf Lodge. You’ve got these great parks. It’s tons of fun to be there.

You’ve got tons of jobs. So P&G is a major hub there. They just built their largest research and development facility in the entire world. And that has a giant kind of sprawl effect over the entire Mason, Ohio community. So you’ve got really strong jobs. You’ve got safety and diversity that are graded really high there. You’ve got top-rated schools for kids, but also just holding those home property values really strong. And then you’ve got appreciation. And that’s what we’re going to dive into this video, is what’s happening from an appreciation standpoint, and what’s happening from a supply and demand standpoint that’s impacting the real estate market in Mason, Ohio, and Cincinnati.

Housing Supply and Demand in Mason Ohio, a Suburb in the Cincinnati Real Estate Market

Cincinnati Real Estate Market - Supply and Demand Housing Trends

So let’s take a look at these reports that I pulled from the MLS today. This is comparing a two-year period ending in, through November of 2020, and going back to the beginning of November in 2018. I’ve got three reports I want to show you guys and I’ll try to unpack these graphs. I’m not going to give you a quiz at the end of this. But I might. But I won’t. No, I won’t. Okay.

But I want to show you what’s happening here. So what are we looking at here? This is supply and demand in terms of units that are for sale in Mason, Ohio, one of the largest suburbs in Cincinnati real estate market, that are under contract, and that are sold. And so if you can look at this, in red, these red bars here, is showing you what is the change over a two-year period and the amount of units for sale. And what this is saying is that it is down 43.6% over a two-year period. So you see this red line going down. You had more homes that were for sale through 2019.

And then as you saw in 2020, what happened? Well, there were less homes for sale. Part of that may have been COVID-related, yes. A part of that, we’ll see, is just the amount of inventory that is out there. And I’ll explain that in a little bit. But in contrast, what I want to look at is the amount of properties that were sold. So even though there was a roughly 44% decrease in the amount of units that were for sale, and this is in the Mason School District. I just pulled basically every residential unit that was for sale and sold in the Mason School District in the last two years. But what you see is even though there was a 44% decrease in the amount of units for sale, there was a 27% increase in the amount of units that sold.

So you can see this wide gap here back in 2018 and how it’s tightening, tightening, tightening, tightening until where we’re at right now at the end of the year of 2020. So what’s that going to do in 2021 going forward? Well, it’s probably going to continue.

Median Home Prices for Mason, Ohio

Let’s keep looking here at the next report. Because I want to show you what kind of impact did that supply and demand have on the prices in Mason, Ohio. Well, that’s what we’re going to look at here. Okay.

So this next chart, we got a bar graph here, and again, we’re going back to the same two-year period, and we’re looking at the median price sold of homes. And again, in Mason, Ohio, in the Mason City School District right here, both single-family homes and condominiums. Okay? And starting back in November of 2018, the median home price is this dotted line right here. And that median home price was $275,000. If you take that forward to November of 2020, that median home price is right here at $341,000. So there was a total change of $63,000 up and a percent change of median price value of 21.5%. So 22% increase. And again, that’s what this line is showing right here, that if you take that growth over the two-year period, you’re seeing 22% growth in median home price.

Cincinnati Real Estate Market  Housing Trends and Prediction - Median price sold MLS data for Mason, Ohio

Now, this is really fascinating. This happened in several areas around Cincinnati, but in Mason, you’re really seeing a big impact on this. If you go back to this chart and you see the amount of properties that are for sale versus the amount that are sold, the supply and demand is just crunching down and causing these prices to rise.

How the Cincinnati Real Estate Market Reacts Compares to Other U.S. Cities

Now, overall in the Cincinnati real estate market, if you compare it to other cities nationally, you’re not going to see huge waves of appreciation. Because in terms of population growth overall, Cincinnati is not one of the top cities in terms of tons of people are flocking to the city. It’s a great place to live. Don’t get me wrong. I’ve looked around the country, okay? I’ve been to different cities. I’ve been to other cities outside of Cincinnati. And what I love about Cincinnati is that it is steady.

And what you’re seeing here is steady growth. And so you might not see as high of appreciation as you might see in cities like Austin or Phoenix in years past. If you go back to the 2007, ’08 buildup in all the cities, Phoenix, different cities in Florida, Texas, California, that saw tons of appreciation. But what happened when the recession hit? Right? There’s a huge crash. And so you got all these homeowners who were upside down because the market fundamentals weren’t as solid. Right? You’re seeing all this appreciation in those other cities, but there was a bubble there.

And while that hit back in 2009, 2010, 2011 in Cincinnati, while that hit us a little bit, it’s more of a steady city. In the Cincinnati real estate market, you see slight rises, but then you also see slight dips when there’s a recession. So that’s something to consider. It’s just more of a steady town. The economy is more diverse. You’re not going to see huge appreciation, but you’re also not going to see huge depreciation when the market turns and the cycle hits and goes the other way around. So something to consider.

So knowing that broader context of Cincinnati, Ohio, and then when you see these rising median home sale prices in Mason, Ohio, it’s kind of like, “Huh, that’s a fairly big deal.” If you compare those numbers to Austin or Dallas or wherever, other cities that are seeing, Nashville, a lot of population growth, you might think, “I’m not going to invest there. What’s the point?” Those other cities may see higher appreciation but in terms of Cincinnati, these are fairly solid numbers, in a real estate market with less volatility.

Months of Supply of House Inventory in Mason, Ohio

So I want to show one more chart and then we’ll close off this video. This last video is the months supply of inventory going back two years again. Okay, so what this means is starting back in November of 2018, there were maybe 3.8 months of inventory. What that number means is if no new houses came on the market, every house would be sold in 3.8 months. Okay? That’s what that bar means. So it’s telling you how long until all the inventory that’s currently on the market will sell.

Cincinnati Real estate market - Months Supply of House Inventory in Mason, Ohio - historic low of inventory

And again, you’re seeing this really steep decline in the months of inventory. In all of 2020, in the beginning, back in January, February, March, when COVID was first hitting and we’re like, “What’s going to happen? This is going to be a crazy year. We’re not going to see the growth that we’ve seen in prices the last few years, and people aren’t going to buy and sell.” Well, honestly, it was kind of the other way around.

Impact of Covid on the Cincinnati Real Estate Market

What happened in Ohio and Cincinnati real estate market was that inventory shrunk even more because inventory was already low. You can see how it was going down in 2019 before COVID hit. There was already record lows of inventory. And then basically what happened was about 70% of people who were going to sell, who were planning on selling in 2020, about 70% of them put their houses on the market. 30% of them were kind of like, “Eh, there’s a world pandemic going on. I don’t necessarily want a lot of people coming to my house. I can wait it out this year.” And so that record low inventory that you saw shrunk even greater to these really historically low levels of inventory on the market.

And you can see in June, July, August, I mean, those months, from a real estate agent standpoint in Cincinnati, was bonkers. If you were a seller, it was awesome because if your house was anywhere near decent, it was going over asking price. You might be getting 5, 10, 15 offers on it. You’d sell it within the first few days, otherwise your agent did something really stupidly wrong. And appraisers were just like… Everything was going above asking price. We saw a lot of appreciation because the inventory was just so low.

And while inventory was low, it didn’t slow down the buyer demand. It didn’t slow down the buyer demand at all. You had people who wanted to buy a house. That was coming in from 2019. And then you had people who are living in apartments or renting somewhere who were like, “You know what? I wouldn’t mind having a little space from this guy that’s hacking up a lung down the hallway. I’d like to have my own house and get a little room so that I can socially distance from all these people around here.”

Takeaways and Cincinnati Real Estate Market Housing Predictions for 2021

And so again, those market dynamics of low supply and high demand led to a lot of appreciation, not only in Cincinnati. You see it here in Mason, Ohio. But it happened really across the country, in most cities. And the reason I’m showing this is if you’re projecting into 2021, you see a little bit more inventory coming on. So it’s slowed down just a little bit in September, October, November. But still going back over two years, look at the level of inventory. It’s down 66% from where it was two years ago. So what does that mean for you? Let me try to translate all of this and I’ll wrap this video up.

But what does that mean for you if you’re looking to buy a house or sell a house in Cincinnati or in Mason, Ohio in 2021? Well, if you’re a buyer, it probably means it’s still going to be competitive unless something really crazy happens in the economy going forward, which could happen. We’ve got a new administration. We’ll see what happens with Senate races, things like that. But what most real estate professionals were saying, going into COVID was, “Hey, the real estate market fundamentals were strong going into 2020.” And going back into the ’08 recession, real estate caused that bubble, right? You had a bunch of bad lending practices where banks were handing out loans to people who shouldn’t have loans. And you have this bubble in the values of houses because people were buying houses they couldn’t afford. Eventually that burst. That wasn’t necessarily happening this year. What you’re just seeing are mostly low supply and high demand.

And so what you’re probably going to see going forward is that’s going to be a continuation where there’s still going to be high demand and low supply. So if you’re a buyer, what that means is it’s going to be competitive for you. But you know that you can buy a property feeling confident, especially in a place like Mason, Ohio, you can be confident that the market fundamentals are strong. And because there’s such high demand for a place like Mason, Ohio. You can expect your home to still appreciate in the years to come, or at least long-term because there might be larger market dynamics that hit you. But locally it’s a strong area in terms of all those reasons we mentioned before, the fun, the jobs, the population growth, the top rated schools, all those things make it a really good place to buy.

Mason Ohio= Home For Sale

If you’re a seller, then you might considering thinking… If you’re a homeowner, you’re like, “Man, the market’s really great. And there’s still a lot of demand.” You can still probably get a really great price for your home in 2021. The question is what are you going to do next, right? Are you going to buy somewhere overpriced? And that’s where it gets a little bit more tricky if you sell your home. But in terms of cashing out and taking out some of the equity that’s appreciated in your property over the past several years that might be a really good idea.

Cincinnati Real Estate market - Bridge

Thanks for Watching – Subscribe to Our YouTube Channel

Okay. So guys, this video, maybe it was more info than you wanted. I hope that it was helpful for you. But I wanted to give you kind of a look into Mason, Ohio, a suburb of the Cincinnati real estate market. If you’re considering buying there, why it makes a lot of sense to buy there, or why it honestly makes good sense to sell there as well. But if this video was helpful for you again, please Like, subscribe to the channel and we’ll see you guys in the next video. Thanks.

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