Should You Sell Your House in 2021? Weighing the PROS and CONS

First, is the average sold and median price from two years ago, compared to the average sold and median price now. And what we’re seeing from this data is basically from March of 19 to March of 21, both meet the average sale price and the median sale price. It’s up 31%-32% in Cincinnati.

Now in Cincinnati, we’re a pretty stable city. We’re a river city in the middle of the country. There’s not a ton of people like moving in and out of here. We don’t see huge amounts of appreciation or depreciation. We’re pretty steady. Normally on a good year, we might see 3% – 4% appreciation. But to see a 31% change in the last two years is pretty crazy. We’ll get into more of why that is.

Let’s look at this other chart. It is showing the supply and demand. If you look at the red line going down. This is telling you how many houses are for sale. And basically, over the last two years, it’s down 46%. The amount of homes that were for sale in March 2019 vs. March 2021 is down 46%.

The same chart basically says the month’s supply of inventory is down 54%.

So if you were trying to buy a house two years ago, you would have 50% more houses available to choose from. Now you have 50% less. What does that mean? It’s economics where there’s high demand and low supply then prices go up.

That’s where we’re at in 2021. Now to be fair, everyone in my office, in my Keller Williams office has said for the last 3 -4 years, it’s a great time to sell. Supply is down and demand is up. And that has actually been true, but it just keeps getting like crazier and crazier, um, where there’s even less supply. And there’s even more demand and prices are going up even more. And typically in a real estate market, there are booms and there are busts. It’s a cycle. It’s a real estate cycle. And everyone’s been waiting for this shift in the market to happen. There are reasons why it should happen, and there are reasons to believe why it might not happen this year.

Here are the reasons why 2021 might look a little different than 2020 and why we might start to see a little bit less demand

Everyone has in their mind 2007 – 2008 when the great recession hit and the real estate market took a tank. And you should remember that since it was a big deal. But the big difference which I’m telling my clients is that the actual real estate bubble was caused by bad lending practices. People were getting loans who shouldn’t be getting loans. So everyone was buying houses that they couldn’t afford. And then you had all this inventory on the market from foreclosures and you had low demand from buyers at that point.

And so prices just tanked. So people still have that fresh in their minds since we just live through that. I mean, it’s been 14 years and that’s the most recent cycle we’ve had. And everyone’s kind of bracing for that thinking of “Oh! it’s going to burst or it might not!” So let’s talk about economically why that might not happen.

So if you’re looking at 2021 and you’re asking if “should you sell your house in 2021?” I’m going to give you the reasons why that cycle might actually shift or probably not because of a huge bust in the market, and some reasons that might dampen the demand and increase the supply.

The first is that interest rates are starting to go up. Over the last several years, we’ve seen interest rates go lower and lower. And what happens with that is it brings more buyers to the table because they can afford more houses with a lower interest rate. What we’ve seen in 2021 early on is those have, they kind of bought them now and they started to going back up. And if interest rates continue to rise, that backs more buyers out of the picture. If there are more buyers out of the picture, demand is less and prices will start theoretically to go down a little bit. The next four reasons are really all about housing supply. How much inventory is on the market? And we are at historic lows. but there are reasons why that might change this year.

There’s a backlog of foreclosures that might hit the market in this year. What happened with the pandemic is the government stepped in and said “Hey, we’re not going to allow you to foreclose on people’s houses and we’re going to put a moratorium on foreclosures. We’re going to allow people to do forbearance” Which is basically miss their payments and tack them onto the end of their mortgage.

There are reasons to believe that eventually, it’s going to come to an end. And there’s a backlog of foreclosures that haven’t happened in the last year. Plus that will hit the market. When those foreclosures hit the market. That’s just more supply on the market, right? When there’s more supply, that’s going to even out that demand and supply curve a little bit and prices will start to fall just a little bit. .

Why supply might go up a little bit is that builders are gaining much more confidence and they’re building more than they have in the last decade. So after the 1997-1998 recession, they got really scared and most of the new construction building dollars, investing dollars went towards multi-family, building out these huge rents. An example is apartment complexes. You’ve probably seen them spring up all over your city and not a lot went into single-family housing.

So right now, because the man is really strong, builders are more confident. Now the cost of building materials is up. But they’re still saying “you know what? We know the demand is strong enough so we’re going to buy land. Build single-family housing. So that is ratcheting up a little bit. It’s not going to catch up to all the demand that’s there.” But again, that’s another reason why supply is going to go up slightly in 2021 and in the years to come.

Why supply might go up is that the Corona virus restrictions are coming to an end somewhat.
And so what happened last year in 2020 is all the pool people who were planning on selling their house. That’s a 100%. But basically about 70% to 80% of them actually did sell their house. Another 20% to 30% said “nah, we’re good. Like there’s a worldwide pandemic on, I don’t really want strangers coming into my house. I don’t know how this thing spreads.” We were all figuring stuff out. We didn’t know if it could spread via touching surfaces. I mean, who wasn’t lie stalling down their Amazon packages that were coming in, right? So a lot of people sat out last year. Well, those people this year, as the vaccine is rolling out more and as restrictions are starting to lift. And they’re like “I was going to sell it last year, but now I’m going to sell this year.” And so that also adds to the inventory that might come back on the market in 2021.

And lastly, this is more of kind of a macro trend, but the baby boomers are aging. As these millions of baby boomers are aging. What’s happening from a housing standpoint is a lot of these boomers bought houses in the suburbs that were big houses. They raised their families, but now they don’t really want to mow my grass and don’t really want to take care of a four-bedroom house anymore. They just want to sell their house and downsize. Move into a walkable community and be done with it. That might not be a rush in 2021 though. But that’s happening personally. My in-laws are looking to do that. They’re like “yeah, let’s sell and move to Florida for six months of the year.”

There’s a lot of boomers that might not all flood-in in 2021, but that is a trend which is bringing more housing inventory on the market. So as you think back to the past several years and the market has gone up and up, it’s been a great seller’s market. Those are five reasons to kind of pause and be like “you know what? It might turn a little bit. It might cool off here in 2021.

So maybe I want to get in and sell my house before the market cools.” The obvious question then is what next? If actually should you sell your house in 2021, then what are you going to do? Because now you’re thrown into this buyer’s market that is crazy. It’s like a shark frenzy infested. It’s just kind of nuts out there. And you’re like “do I really want to do that?” You might not want to do that for the reason that there are some downsides to selling. When you put yourself in this situation where there’s not a lot of inventory on the market and you have to buy a house that might be more expensive compared to the last few years. So you’re just kind of trading.

Reasons why you might want to consider selling your house or buying and some tips!

First reason you would sell and buy another house is that it just works better for your family or your situation. Maybe you’ve got a two-bedroom home or a three-bedroom home, and you’ve had a kid or two in the, during the pandemic or whatever. And you’re like, we need more space. So basically you’re like “yeah, I’m okay.” I understand that I’m going to make a lot of money when I sell. And a lot of that money is going to be taken up on this next house because that house is going to be expensive too, but it’s a better situation for your family.

Same thing as you’re downsizing. And you’re like “I’ve got too much house and I’m going to cash out on the equity and I’m going to buy something smaller. And yes, it’s kind of expensive, but it’s a better fit for me and my life right now.” That’s a good reason why you should sell right now if you are okay with flipping the house or doing a rehab project and managing that or even doing it yourself. Then maybe you can find a house that’s been out there for a little bit that nobody wants because it’s got some issues wrong with it.

Maybe you can find an off-market property because you’re working with local wholesalers or something like that. That’s if you’re absolutely intent on like “I’ve got to cash out here, this equity, and I’ve got a gain equity on the purchase.” It’s a challenge, but it could be done.

Now just realize those houses are few and far between right now, because of the foreclosure issue we talked about. And you’re now competing against investors as well. So you might be competing against other owner-occupants who want to do that. You’re also competing against investors who are kind of starved from inventory, even as well of properties where they can make a dollar. So it’s rare, but you can find it. And that’s one option you can do as well.

What I would probably not recommend doing right now is cashing out on your equity and then saying “I’m going to rent somewhere and I’m just going to sit it out because I know the market’s going to crash. And when the market crashes, I will then buy when the prices are down.” Just because of the economics that we’re seeing and the demand is there because the market is not built up artificially. Because of inflation, a lot of dollars being pumped into the economy right now. And prices are probably just going to continue to go up more and more. Millennials are wanting to buy a house. So demand is not slowing anytime soon! If should you sell your house in 2021 and then rent somewhere or live in your parents’ basement or whatever, kind of temporary housing you’re thinking about doing. You might be sitting there an awfully long time. And when you go to jump back into the market, you might see realize that it just kept going up.

There might be some cooling off of the market. But from the economist I’m listening to and from the real estate indicators I’m looking at or from other real estate agents I’m talking to. It doesn’t feel like it’s the same as the 1997-98 crash. So that’s kind of the big idea I want to give to you here is like, we might not see that huge decline in prices. And so if you’re trying to time it, I would just say be very, very careful. I wouldn’t strongly recommend trying to time the market when trying to know if should you sell your house in 2021!

So what’s my recommendation to you as a real estate agent, as someone who’s in the real estate market day in and day out. Should you sell your house in 2021? ..Maybe?.. And that’s my answer! That’s kind of what I got for you.

Should You Sell Your House in 2021? Get Professional Real Estate Advice From Team Sztanyo!

Here at team Sztanyo. We believe that your home is where families grow strong together. And that could look very different from how your family makeup is. Families are all kinds of different. So you might want to go buy 50 acres out in the country. You might have a lot of kids and you might want to have them run around. And you think now’s the time to sell your house in the city and move out to the country and get a bunch of lands. Great! Or you might want to be in the urban center and you might want to have walkability and be close to shopping, restaurants, and bars. Great! You have to do what’s right for you. And so what I would say is “does it make sense to sell and buy right now?”

It depends on your situation! If you’re trying to find and improve on a better situation, because you know the living criteria and the criteria you want for your home, that will strengthen your family, that will be better for whatever you want for your family. Then yes, sell your home and buy another one and move. Do it this year. Don’t try to time the market. But if you’re just trying to do it to cash out and to make a buck and then sit out on the market..this is probably not what you’re going to see on other videos. You’re going to see like “six reasons why you” or “You have to sell it right now!”

Well, I’m not doing that right? If you’re getting anything from me right now, it’s just like, be smart about it. Be wise about it. Do it If it’s the right situation for you. And that’s basically in any market. If you try to time the market, you’re going to get in trouble! You have to do what’s best for you and for your family.

If you would like to learn more about what’s happening now on the real estate market then please watch these other videos. We’ve got all kinds of playlists like, if you’re new to the Cincinnati area, what’s the cost of living? What’s it like living in different neighborhoods? And we also have videos on new construction homes. We’ve got tons of content, all about Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky real estate and living in the city. Please watch another video. If this was helpful for you, please give it a like and subscribe. Thank you guys so much for watching.