Cincinnati Is Beating the National Housing Market (And Big Money Is Betting on It)

Cincinnati Is Quietly Setting Up for Its Next Run in 2026

Sztanyo Clanyo — welcome back to Team Sztanyo Live. I’m Eric Sztanyo, and today we’re talking about what’s happening in Cincinnati right now—through real headlines, real numbers, and real deals that give us clues about where the market is heading into 2026.

Let me start with a question:

What if I told you Cincinnati home values are expected to grow faster than the national average next year…
that hundreds of new six-figure jobs are being added in Northern Kentucky…
that Wall Street money is buying downtown office buildings at prices we haven’t seen since the 1990s…
and—maybe the most fun one—Skyline Chili is opening its largest restaurant ever right in the middle of Fountain Square.

Would you say Cincinnati is slowing down… or quietly setting up for its next run?

Tonight I’m not here to overhype anything, and I’m definitely not here to do doom-and-gloom. I want to take a look at real data and real trends and explain what they mean for you if you’re buying, selling, relocating, or just trying to understand the Cincinnati market heading into 2026.

A quick personal update (because life matters too)

This week was a little different in the Sztanyo household. My wife took our three youngest to Florida right before the snowstorm, so I was on “bachelor duty” with my two oldest (15 and 13). We kept it simple—burgers, chicken thighs, popcorn, eggs—and had a blast.

I’ve had a note in my phone for over 10 years called “Movies for My Sons”, and the boys are finally old enough for the classics. We kicked off the snowstorm weekend with Gladiator, then went straight into The Matrix. All-time dad win.

And on top of that… December 18th marks our 20-year anniversary. We didn’t do the big celebration yet (airport pickup + church Christmas party), but I’m grateful. Twenty years in—praise God.

Alright. Let’s get into the headlines.

1) National housing headlines can be misleading—because real estate is local

One big theme I want to say over and over again:

Cincinnati real estate is not the national real estate market.

We don’t follow national trends in the same way. We do our own thing—and that stability is a feature, not a bug.

A national article highlighted something pretty wild:

53% of U.S. homes lost value in the last year (the most since 2012)

That sounds alarming—and in many cities, it is. But it varies dramatically based on region.

The hardest-hit cities (huge share of homes losing value)

Some of the top cities where most homes lost value included:

Denver
Austin
Sacramento
Phoenix
Dallas / San Antonio
Tampa / Orlando
San Francisco
Jacksonville

A lot of those are South and West markets, which saw massive run-ups during the pandemic boom—and in many cases, big increases in inventory.

And then there’s another factor hitting those markets hard:

Insurance shocks are crushing affordability in disaster-prone areas

Hurricanes, wind, flooding, wildfires—some areas are seeing homeowners insurance climb so fast it becomes a primary reason people try to sell.

More sellers + fewer buyers = more supply + less demand = price pressure.

The Cincinnati difference

Here’s the line that matters:

In some Midwest markets like Cincinnati, the share of homes listed below their last sale price was just 1%.

That’s stability.

Nationwide, it’s more like 4%. In certain high-volatility metros, it’s way higher. So if you’re comparing Cincinnati to the national headlines you’re seeing online, just remember:

Real estate is local. Real estate is local. Real estate is local.

What we’re seeing now nationally isn’t a crash

It’s a normalization. Even nationally:

Many homeowners still have strong equity
Relatively few are selling at a loss
Values surged so much in recent years that a small pullback doesn’t erase long-term gains

Cincinnati’s market personality: stable, steady, dependable

This is important for buyers and investors to understand.

If you’re someone who wants to “ride a wave”—chase explosive appreciation, flip quickly, time the market perfectly—Cincinnati usually isn’t that.

Cincinnati is more like:

steady
reliable
less volatile
less dramatic upswings and downswings

It’s not a “surf the giant wave” market.

It’s more like river waves. Consistent. Predictable. Livable.

2) Cincinnati home values are projected to outpace the national average in 2026

Now let’s zoom in locally.

According to Zillow’s forecast:

Greater Cincinnati home values are expected to rise 1.6% in 2026
Nationwide forecast is 1.2%

I’ll be honest—1.6% feels a little low based on what I’m seeing and the underlying demand here, but the point remains:

Cincinnati is expected to outperform the national average.

Yes, price reductions have been happening

This is true, and you’ve probably felt it:

More price cuts than we’ve seen in years
Longer days on market
More negotiating power for buyers

Zillow also noted:

Cincinnati listings were discounted by about $20,000 off the initial list price in October
That was among the larger discounts across big metros

But I want to add context:

Seasonality is real

December is typically the lowest point of the year for pricing and activity. People don’t want to move during the holidays.

Then January hits and it’s like someone flips a switch:

new year motivation
pre-approvals updated
buyers re-enter
inventory tightens
competition rises

Local sales activity (real numbers)

Across Butler, Clermont, Hamilton, and Warren counties:

16,371 homes sold year-to-date through November
Up from 15,983 in 2024
Total sales volume was about $6.2B vs $5.7B last year

And while prices climbed, days on market increased:

November median days on market rose 30% to 13 days

That means:

buyers have more leverage than they’ve had in years
sellers need sharper pricing and better presentation
but the market is still moving—especially when homes are positioned correctly

Rates aren’t likely to fall below 6% in 2026 (per Zillow)

Maybe they do. Maybe they don’t. But here’s the mindset trap buyers fall into:

“If I just wait for rates to drop, I’ll have more buying power.”

Maybe—but if rates drop, demand jumps back in, and competition heats up quickly.

And when more buyers pile in, prices can rise again.

3) Wall Street money is bullish on downtown Cincinnati office real estate

This one caught my eye because it’s not a local agent talking up Cincinnati.

This is an out-of-town investment firm putting real money into the market.

A Colorado-based buyer, Real Capital Solutions, bought First Financial Center downtown for $59 million.

Here’s what’s fascinating:

This wasn’t a distressed asset

Their strategy is usually buying distressed office and repositioning it.

But this building:

is 92% occupied
has stable, high-quality tenants
had a competitive bidding process

So why did they do it?

The “flight to quality” + shrinking supply

They cited several reasons:

tenants upgrading into Class A space
limited Class A competition in Cincinnati
and big one: office conversions are removing older office inventory

Downtown has converted a lot of Class B and C office space into residential—about 1.8 million square feet in recent years.

That supply reduction makes top-tier office buildings more valuable.

Replacement cost is insane

This was the quote that jumped off the page:

New construction downtown would cost $600–$700 per square foot
They bought this building at about $106 per square foot

That’s a massive gap—and it’s why they feel the deal is compelling.

The cap rate tells the story

They acquired it at a 13% cap rate—a level they said hasn’t been seen since the late 1990s.

Banks were also more willing than expected to lend on it because:

strong tenant base
long lease terms (~7.5 years weighted average)
and the discount to replacement cost

This is the signal I want you to take away:

National investors see Cincinnati as stable enough to bet on, even in a sector many lenders still fear.

4) GE Aerospace / CFM lands a massive engine order

This one matters because jobs matter.

CFM International (based in West Chester) announced an agreement with Pegasus Airlines for up to 300 LEAP-1B engines for Boeing 737-10 aircraft.

Even with rough math based on earlier public pricing examples, you’re talking:

billions of dollars in engines and service contracts

Why does that matter for real estate?

Because when you’re buying a home, you’re buying into:

local income stability
employer strength
job growth
and long-term economic demand

Strong jobs = strong housing fundamentals.

5) Skyline Chili is opening a “museum-restaurant” on Fountain Square

Okay, Sztanyo Clanyo—this one is just fun.

Skyline is opening a new corporate-owned flagship at Fountain Square:

8,000 square feet
200 seats
a Skyline “museum” vibe with brand history + retail merchandise
a bar area (beer + wine)
private event space
targeted for a launch around Reds Opening Day festivities (March 25, 2026)

This is a big deal for downtown momentum because it’s tied directly to:

downtown foot traffic
convention center investment
more downtown residents
return-to-office trends
and visitor experience

It’s not just a restaurant. It’s a brand statement:
“Downtown Cincinnati is worth investing in.”

Also: if you’re new here… Skyline is inevitable. 😉

6) Northern Kentucky job growth: 539 new roles in Hebron

Another headline that supports the trend:

Stord (Atlanta-based logistics + tech) plans to expand in Hebron:

$41 million investment
up to 539 new jobs
average salary around $67,225

And again—this feeds the same theme:
jobs + investment + demand = market strength

The big takeaway: Cincinnati isn’t flashy—Cincinnati is dependable

One quote from the office investor cracked me up because it’s so true:

“Frankly, Cincinnati wasn’t high up on our list.”

That might be the most Cincinnati thing ever.

But that’s also part of why it remains such a strong value:

it’s under-the-radar
it’s stable
it’s livable
it has real jobs
and it avoids the extreme boom/bust cycles you see elsewhere

Cincinnati doesn’t “blow up.”

It just… keeps working.

Want help buying, selling, or relocating to Cincinnati?

If you’re thinking about moving here in 2026, or you have real estate needs in Cincinnati or Northern Kentucky, reach out anytime.

You can call, text, or email—and we also have free relocation guides:

family-focused
young professionals
international relocation

And yes… we’re hiring if you’re an agent looking for a team that’s actually doing enough volume to understand the market in real time.

Sztanyo Clanyo — thanks for watching.
Merry Christmas, and I’ll see you in the next one.